Shanghai 1000 « Milos Raonic

8Oct/12Off

Shanghai 1000

[Oct.8] Milos is scheduled to take on Marinko Matesevic (ATP#60) of Australia on Centre Court, Tuesday about 4pm Shanghai-time (1am PT, 4am ET) following the Isner v Anderson match. Matesevic was the top-seeded qualifier, and has played some good tennis this year, on-and-off; notably upsetting Richard Gasquet to make QF at Eastbourne. But Milos will be the 4-1 betting favourite tomorrow.

Milos' "on paper" likely path to the finals (note a couple of significant speed-bumps): 1) M.Matesevic #60 2) M.Baghdatis #36 3) J.W.Tsonga #6 4) T.Berdych #7 5) N. Djokovic #2 6) R. Federer #1 [With upsets, also possible: 2) F. Fognini #45 4) K. Nishikori #15.]

Rankings: Milos is now up to #14 in the ATP rankings, only 35 points behind R.Gasquet, 25 points ahead of K.Nishikori; a par performance in Shanghai should keep him #14. In the "ATP Race" things are a little more interesting: Milos is currently #13, only 170 points below #10 Almagro, who was just upset in round one. So that #10 spot is now up for grabs, in reach of (in order) Gasquet, Monaco and Milos.

UPDATE [Oct.9] Raonic d Matesevic 76(4) 63 -- Milos somewhat uninspired, but mostly in control, except for the eighth game of the first set which he "donated" via two shanks and two double-faults. Next up: Milos v M.Baghdatis on the Union Pay Court (so probably not televised?) at 11pm PT; 2am ET. Odds: Milos at 2.5 to 1. The ATP Race continues to move in the correct direction: Monaco's upset in R32 leaves Gasquet and Milos (in that order) going after Almagro's #10 spot. Milos needs the win tonight to pass Monaco, so lots on the line. Go Milos!!

UPDATE [Oct.10] In the second round, Milos lost to Marcos Baghdatis in a tough, long (2:40) match: 3 tie-breaks 67(4) 76(5) 67(3). Milos played well, but Marcos had an exceptional day, especially with his first serve, on which Milos was able to pick up only 7 points out of 55 (13%); meanwhile Marcos won points on 25% of Milo's first serves. The third set was illustrative: Milos' serve let him down a bit, with only 51% of 1st serves in, and only 1 ace vs 4 aces from Marcos. Meanwhile Milos picked up only 6 return points, half as many as Marcos. Combined, that probably cost him the break, and thus set and match.

Full credit to Baghdatis for the win; no discredit to Milos. Interestingly, Gasquet was also upset (by Stepanek) so neither he nor Milos (nor Monaco) will displace Almagro from #10 in the Race rankings. Next up for Milos: the Valencia 500, starting Oct. 21.

View from Dustin Pollock: >> http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/eh-game/milos-raonic-falls-shanghai-masters-future-still-looks-171329626.html <<

Posted by Tomaso

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GG
October 15th, 2012 - 13:19

It would be nice if he can finish in the top 10, but a good scenario would be top 12. Then he wouldn’t have to face the top four seeds until the QFs at the Australian Open. If he can maintain a top 12 position he should be able to make the next step up in the rankings next year because he will no longer have to face Federer or Murray prior to a QF in any tournament.

A good result in either of his final two tournaments should put him in this position. Here are the current standings in the race to the end of the season:

10. Almagro (2425)
11. Gasquet (2370)
12. Monaco (2340)
13. Raonic (2320)
14. Cilic (2150)
15. Isner (2055)

The 9th spot is looking like a long shot with Tipsarevic at 2810. He is in a winnable 250 tournament this week (2nd seed behind Del Porto), with a chance of increasing his points 2970 (win) or 2870 (finalist).

If he doesn’t make it to London this year, he will surely be there next year.
- wacb
  October 17th, 2012 - 09:05
  
  I’m not seeing how Milos is playing this week; unfortunately, he didn’t take our advice and search out a wildcard… Tipsarevic is 2nd seed in Vienna. Milos tweeted yesterday that it’s back to training and preparations for Barcelona.
  - wacb
    October 18th, 2012 - 18:35
    
    Sorry, IN Barcelona, FOR Valencia I presume….
- Tomaso
  October 17th, 2012 - 15:53
  
  I agree that, while top 10 is still theoretically possible, a good result would be 12 by end of year. Even though it looks close — only 105 points between Almagro and Milos — there are some details that make the job tougher than it might seem, even with a better than expected performance. Firstly, Almagro is playing Stockholm this week, seeded third, which means a par performance will take him to SF. Secondly, it looks like Gasquet will be seeded fourth in Basel; par play takes him to SF there. Monaco, meanwhile, will likely be seeded fourth in Valencia (par SF), where Milos will likely be seeded eighth (par QF, same as Almagro and Cilic). So to move up at all, Milos will not only have to go one round past par, he’ll have to count on one of the other three being upset a round or two early. If everyone plays at par they’ll go to Paris in the same order, but with Milos likely at a slight disadvantage for seeding, in the 13-16 seed-group, with the others probably in the 9-12 group. Milos has done so well this year, but further progress will now be much tougher, and yes, we must all be a bit patient.
TOM
October 11th, 2012 - 01:42

Milos has to be more patient. Everyone’s gunning for him to measure themselves against his serve.To move up Milos needs the all court game like he exhibited against Murray but use those same take no prisoner tactics against all opponents.
Then decisive victories will come more often.
Keep the pedal to the metal.
wacb
October 10th, 2012 - 20:16

Too bad it wasn’t televised, won’t get to watch the replay. It looked like Baghdatis put in a great performance, and Milos played well enough to make it close and competitive but obviously not his best, judging by first serve in % and aces stats.

I hope Milos pushes for a Wildcard in Stockholm, since he seems to have a little more time off than he thought before Valencia and Paris.
- Tomaso
  October 11th, 2012 - 02:54
  
  Good point about wildcard in Stockholm, except that Raonic & Melzer won their first doubles match, are through to R16 where they stand a half-decent chance against 8th-seed team of Peya & Soares. By the way I like to see Milos playing doubles, at this stage of his career: I think it helps to tune up certain aspects of his game, especially reflexes at net.
  - wacb
    October 11th, 2012 - 15:03
    
    True, but doubles is always pretty easy to dip out of for the opportunity to play singles… Melzer is playing next week in Vienna as well…
    
    I just say Stockholm because he’s played there the past couple of yrs, but he would be #1 seed if he was able to slide into the Russia 250, and playing in Vienna probably wouldn’t be too shabby either! I just kind of want him to end off the season with a bang. He probably already has enough 250s for the season though, but it would be too cumbersome for me to check it out on my Blackberry browser right now…
wacb
October 9th, 2012 - 23:37

It’s awesome that we’re talking about top 10 in 2012… Let’s not forget he has basically no points to defend in Paris later this year (having lost in the first round last year)… He has already defended the points he had from Shanghai last year, so things are looking up! I don’t think Baghdatis has what it would take to defeat Raonic when he plays well. Looking forward to a match with Tsonga in the 3rd rnd.
TOM
October 9th, 2012 - 11:51

I agree.Milos has improved considerably on the big points but if he approached each match the same as his last one with Murray he might open up a little more ground on his opponents but the risk is you have to be very sharp to go for it like with Murray.
Still needs work on consistency , service returns and movement but that will come.
He has a great net game,top serve and viscous forehand.
It is great being a fan of such a talent.
wacb
October 9th, 2012 - 09:05

Tough draw for Milos, but this is unavoidable in a Masters 1000. It seems very apparent now, after watching the performance in Japan that, at least for opponents outside the top 3, the outcome of the game rests on Milos’ shoulders.

Playing well, making first serves, he can beat almost anyone (I would still say that Feds, Djoko, or Nadal would be favourites even with Milos playing his best). Unfortunately, as we’ve seen, Milos’ game can drop significantly for short periods during a match, which is usually the cause of any defeat.

With that said, I can see his consistency is improving and he is closing in on that gap to be competitive with the top 3. His constant inprovement is encouraging! Another 500-level final! Looking for good things in Shanghai (and hoping for some of those upsets you mentioned, Tom).

–wacb