Milos Raonic – Canada Fan Blog an (unofficial) blog about tennis and Canadian player Milos Raonic

BNP Parabis Open Preview – Raonic to meet Federer in Round-of-16?

The Draw for Milos

Now that the draws are out for Indian Wells, we see that Milos Raonic is looking at names such as Mardy Fish and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the way before reaching the Round-of-16. The big story, though, is that if he is to make it out of his eighth of the draw and move past the round-of-16, he will need to beat Roger Federer. After that his date for the quarter-finals will probably be Berdych, Wawrinka, or Cilic - after which his semi-final match would almost certainly be Djokovic, who is playing great this year.

Can Milos upset Federer (and cause him to fall to #3 in the rankings)?

In Dubai and at the Australian Open this year Djokovic has defeated Federer. Due to these defeats, Federer is in danger of falling to #3 in the ATP rankings behind Djokovic, who would take #2, and Rafael Nadal. If Djokovic wins the BNP Parabis Open, or just makes it to the final, he will overtake Federer in the rankings. Since Djokovic and Federer are both in the Bottom half of the draw, they would face in the semi-finals if they are to meet at all.
There are some other scenarios that would see Djokovic move ahead of Federer. Even if Djokovic loses in the semi-finals, he can still move ahead of Federer in the rankings as long as Federer loses in the Round-of-16 or before. That all-important round-of-16 match for Federer will more than likely be against Milos Raonic. This cannot be good for Federer, as I'm sure he would not like to be facing the top-server on tour at this critical point. If Milos does eventually move past Federer and his quarter-final match to face Djokovic, the outcome will not matter in terms of the rankings, Djokovic will be #2.

Federer's Result Last Year...

For Federer to go down to Milos in the round-of-16 should not sound unfathomable. He lost in the round-of-32 at Indian Wells last year to Marcos Baghtatis (see those results here).
All of this raises the stakes for Federer and Djokovic (neither of which have met Milos in a ATP match before) and Milos Raonic is "smack-dab" in the middle of this rivalry - I'm excited to watch it play out.

-- WACB

Link to Djokovic / Federer comparison - ATP
Link to Raonic / Djokovic comparison - ATP
Link to Raonic / Federer comparison - ATP
Link to bnpparabisopen.com article about Djokovic / Federer rankings battle